Slowplaying Poker
Slowplaying is the act of playing a hand that is strong in a manner that would indicate that it is not so strong. The slowplay is used with the intent of trapping other players into the hand and trying to get more chips out of them. Although it is a useful concept, it is often misused and abused. Slowplaying is useful if you have a hand that is so strong that you need other players to catch up just so they can call with an improved, but losing hand. It is not a useful strategy if those players that catch up have a decent chance of making stronger hand than your hand. Slowplaying is also not a useful strategy if your opponents were willing to call your bets or raises anyway. Here are some situations to think about.
1. You have Q♦J♦ and 5 players see the Flop for one raise. Your hand: Q♦J♦
Flop: Q♠J♠J♣
You have a full house. This is a great Flop for your hand. There are all sorts of possible hands that other players may be drawing to with a Flop like this. They could have two spades for a flush draw, they could have a straight draw with AK, AT, KT, K9, T9, T8, they could even have trips with the fourth J. This is a time to ram and jam and try to get more money into the pot as there are many ways that other players will call anyway. If you wait until the Turn to make the raise, other players will naturally be afraid that you have a monster, but being aggressive on the Flop could be read by other players as a strong drawing hand or a Q with an A or K kicker. When one of the draws gets their card on the Turn or River, they may think they have drawn out and even raise you at that point.
2. You have Q♦J♦ and raise in late position. Only the big blind calls. Your hand: Q♦J♦
Flop: Q♠J♠J♣
You have flopped a monster, a full house. Now you may think about slowplaying and hope he catches up. If the player is aware though, you may have to put in a bet on the Flop and hope that he calls. Most players will expect you to bet on the Flop with anything, so if you do not bet, they may get a strange feeling wondering why you did not bet, and think you are slowplaying a monster hand. Against players who are less aware, a check may get some bets from them on the Turn or River if they pair up one of their hole cards.
3. You have A♣A♥. Flop: A♠2♣3♦
If you had raised before the Flop, it is usually difficult not to bet on the Flop. It is usually best to bet with the hopes that another player has the case A or is drawing to a straight with a 4 or 5. In order to make a successful slowplay here, you would need a player to catch a pair with a hand like KJ on the Turn. But players who are aware will usually be very careful with an A on the board.
4. You have 55 in a three way pot. Your hand: 55
Flop #1: A-5-5
This is a monster hand that has almost no chance of losing. Many players will play with an A in their hand, so even if there are only two other players in the pot, they may be willing to call or even raise. Slowplaying here will probably just reduce the amount of your win. If you bet and everyone folds, it is likely that they had no piece of the Flop and would not have put in much after that anyway. If the Flop had a J instead of an A, then the situation is different.
Your hand: 55
Flop #2: J-5-5
This is a situation where a slowplay may be useful. A player with A7 may not call a bet when there is a J on the board since he may figure you for a J and think he only has 3 outs. But if he senses weakness when you check to him, it may get him to play on. All players are more likely to play a hand containing an A than a hand containing a J. So it is less likely any given player has a pair of J’s when the Flop is J-5-5 than has a pair of A’s when the Flop is A-5-5.
5. You are in the big blind with J♠T♠ and call a late position player’s open-raise. Your hand: J♠T♠
Flop: 9♣8♦7♠
You have the nut straight. In this case you need to determine the looseness of the pre-Flop raiser. If you think he is willing to call all the way to the River with a hand like AK, you may want to check-raise on the Flop and take the lead. If he is willing to play hard with a hand like AT, then you do not mind betting and raising at every opportunity. If there is a greater probability that he will give you more credit and fold to your aggressive play on the Flop and Turn, then it may be best to just check and call his bets, until an A or K show up, then a check-raise may get more money into the pot if he indeed has a pair. The correct usage of slowplaying will depend on how you think your opponent will play.
6. You have AK in early position and raise pre-Flop. A couple of decent players call behind you.
Flop: A-8-4
You bet out and get called by one player. Turn: 4
Now you may want to put the slowplay into gear. Since your opponent did not re-raise before the Flop, it is likely that he did not have a big pocket pair and instead has a hand like AQ, AJ, AT. If you check, it should give him the idea that you have a big pocket pair and are afraid of the A. You can now check with the intention of check-raising on the Turn, or wait until the River to pull off your check-raise. This slowplay will work best against decent players who respect your play yet
are willing to get all the edge they can get. You do not want to try this slowplay against opponents who are loose enough that they could have called your pre-Flop raise with a hand like 98, because then they will likely not bet after you have checked. You also would not want to try this slowplay against opponents who are very timid and may be afraid to bet a weaker pair of A’s even after you check to him.
Bluffing against one opponent
Lets examine the less complex situation of bluffing on the river against one opponent. You are in last position and your opponent has checked to you. Here are the scenarios that you will be facing:
A. You have a good to strong hand
B. You have a mediocre hand
C. You have a below average hand
D. You have a very poor hand
Situation A is a simple situation. You should be betting and hoping your opponent calls and loses more chips to you. This is not a bluff.
Situation B is a little more complex. This is the type of situation that comes up where you have to think if it is worthwhile to make what is called a “value bet”. This is defined as a bet when your cards are not that great, but you still think there is value in making a bet because you believe your hand is stronger than your opponents with a decent degree of certainty.
Situation C & D are the situations where the decision of whether or not to bluff comes into play.
In each Situations B, C and D, the size of the pot needs to be considered as well as the opponent’s thoughts on the size of the pot. In Situation B, if the pot size is large, you should be more inclined
to make a wager, because your opponent will be more inclined to call with a worse hand since he believes he is getting relatively large pot odds in case you were bluffing. In Situation C & D, a bigger pot will reward you more handsomely for a successful bluff than a smaller pot would. But keep in mind that your opponent may be aware of the relative pot size as well, and thus may be
more inclined to call your bet when the pot is bigger. Here are some examples of Situation C&D
Example of Situation C
Assumptions:
1. You have a 25% chance of having the best hand
2. If you bet and your opponent has a better hand than yours, he will fold 40% of the time and call
60% of the time.
3. If you bet and your opponent has a worse hand than yours, he will fold 100% of the time.
4. The pot size is 5 big bets
5. Your lone opponent has checked on the River and you are last to act.
Expected Value of checking:
The pot size is 5 big bets. If you do not bet, you have a 25% chance of winning the hand and a 75%
chance of losing the hand. The expected value of checking in this hand is:
Expected Value of checking = (25% x 5 big bets) + (75% x 0 big bets) = +1.25 big bets
It is important to forget about the chips that you have put in the pot yourself in previous rounds. Those chips are now a sunk cost, it is no longer your chips as it currently belongs to the pot.
Expected Value of betting:
In the assumptions, it states that if you bet and your opponent has a better hand, he will fold 40%
of the time and call 60% of the time, but if he has a worse hand, he will fold 100% of the time.
In the assumptions, it was stated that when you have the best hand (25% of the time in this example), your opponent will not call a bet. When you have the worst hand (75% of the time in this example), your opponent will fold 40% of the time and call 60% of the time.
The expected values individual situations are: You have the best hand = 25% x 5 = 1.25
He has the best hand and he folds when you bet = 75% x 40% x 5 = 1.50
He has the best hand and he calls when you bet = 75% x 60% x -1 = -0.45
Since there is no increased value to betting when you have the best hand (since we have assumed
he will fold 100% of the time when he has a worse hand), the only possible extra value that is
gained by a bet is due to bluffing, when you bluff him out of a better hand. In this example, we are not sure if we have the best hand or not, so it is unclear if we are actually bluffing.
Expected Value of betting/bluffing = (25% x 5 big bets) + (75% x 40% x 5 big bets) + (75% x 60%
x -1 big bet) = +2.3 big bets
When we bet, we have an expected value of +2.30 big bets. In this example, it is clear that betting
is better than checking, as an expected value of +2.30 big bets is better than an expected value of
+1.25 big bets in checking.
If the numbers were slightly changed, then it could make the bluff an incorrect move. Lets change the assumptions and assume that instead of folding 40% of the time when he has the best hand,
your opponent is only going to fold 10% of the time when he has the best hand, and call 90% of the time. Then the expected value equation becomes:
Expected Value of betting/bluffing with adjusted numbers = (25% x 5 big bets) + (75% x 10% x
5 big bets) + (75% x 90% x -1 big bet) = +0.95 big bets
In this case, the expected value of bluffing is +0.95 big bets, which is worse than the expected
value of checking +1.25 big bets. So your decision to bluff or not is dependent on how likely your opponent is going to call.
Example of Situation D
In cases like Situation D, where we have a very poor hand, with almost no chance of winning the pot outright, the calculations would be similar. We could assume we had 0% of winning if we
checked, but a 20% chance of our opponent folding if we bet. If we also assumed the pot contained
5 big bets, then the expected value formula is:
Expected Value of checking in Situation D = 0% x 5 big bets = +0.00 big bets
Expected Value of bluffing in Situation D = (20% x 5 big bets) + (80% x -1 big bet) = +0.20 big bets
With these numbers, it is clear that a bluff bet is the best option as we gain +0.20 big bets compared
to 0, but if we changed the percentage of your opponent folding down to 10%, then bluffing would
be a worse option than just giving up the pot without a fight. The expected value formula is:
Expected Value of bluffing in Situation D with adjusted numbers = (10% x 5 big bets) + (90% x
-1 big bet) = -0.40 big bets
Now we have the math, but we still need to learn the skill of pinpointing the percentage that our opponents will fold. If we were able to obtain their folding frequency number, then poker would
be very easy for those who are adept at math, we could just plug the numbers into an expected
value formula like the ones above and it will tell us the right move to make. Alas, in real life, it is difficult to make these assessments. Putting a percentage on whether a player will call or fold is not the easiest skill in the world to learn. You need to be paying attention to the players and see how they play to try to pick up on their tendencies. Whether they call with mediocre hands or if it seems they are calling a lot even though there are not any draws available. The reason why that is important is because it will show that they are calling with a low pair instead of just folding on a missed draw. The main way to gain this skill is through experience, observing your opponents and
thinking about the game.
Another example of a bluff attempt against one opponent
You are in the big blind holding Ad8c. Everybody folds to a player one to the right of the cutoff seat who raises. Everybody else folds and you call, there are two players and 2.25 big bets in the pot.
Flop: 8s-7s-6c
You check, the pre-Flop raiser bets and you check-raise. He re-raises and you decide to call. Going into the turn, there is 5.25 big bets.
Turn: 2c
You check hoping that your opponent was only on a spade draw and checks as well. However he does not, he bets. You are afraid that he has an overpair and has you down to just 5 outs (if he has KK you have 5 outs, 3 A’s and 2 8’s) or 2 outs (if he has AA, you only have 2 outs, the 2 8’s). There
is also the distinct possibility that he holds a hand like AsKs or AsQs which may seem to him like
he has many outs, thus raising on the flop and betting on the turn as a semi-bluff may seem reasonable to him. With two overcards and a flush draw, you can see that maybe he thinks he has
as many as 15 outs, so he did not mind re-raising on the flop. Many times these players will also continue to bet on the turn too with the hopes that you fold, and if you do not fold, at least they still have outs. It is unclear exactly what hand he has, you may be the favorite or you could be the underdog. You decide to call his bet.
But that is not the important decision. The important decision is wondering what to do on the
River. There is an opportunity to bet out if a T, 9 or 5 hits the board, whether or not it is a spade.
In fact, if it is a spade, it actually helps your bluff attempt even more. That is because if he is on spades, he will raise you and you can fold knowing that you are beat, thus losing the same amount
as a check and call. If he is not on spades and has an overpair, the 9s is going to look like a very
dangerous card to him. You may have been in the hand with a spade draw, a straight draw or hit two pairs. If he views you as a good player, he may be afraid that a bet on the river by you is a bet that is trying to save the hand from being checked down on the river. It will look like you got there with a draw. Whether a bluff is correct or not will depend on your thoughts about the chances that
your opponent can fold with an overpair.
There are two important points to take here. One is that you do not have to succeed all the time
with your bluff to make it profitable. All you need is to win it the same percentage of the time that the pot odds reflect that you need to win it by. So if you get called once or twice making a bluff
like this, it does not necessarily make it a bad bluff. On the other hand, if you are bluffing into players who are incapable of folding a big pocket pair even into a scary board of 8s-7s-6c-2c-9s, then you are just throwing your money away. Bluffing depends heavily on the ability of your opponent to fold a better hand. If they are incapable of that, then it is a foolhardy experiment.
All About Semi-Bluffing
Although the term semi-bluff or semi-bluffing is now used universally in the poker world, it was first used by David Sklansky. The idea is that you bet or a raise with the hopes that your opponent will fold, but if they do not, you still have a chance to win the hand with other cards to come. This allows you two ways to win, via a fold by your opponent or getting lucky on a future round. If there is no chance that the opponent will fold, then it is just a bluff, not a semi-bluff.
Semi-Bluff Raising on the Turn
There are times when you should raise even if you do not have the best cards at the moment. You are hoping that your opponent will fold a better hand, but even if he calls, you will still have a chance of improving to beat him.
Example:
| You hold: |   |
| On the Turn, the board is: |     |
| Lets assume you know your opponent has: |   |
So he is currently ahead of you with a pair, but you have many outs. Any A, K, T or spade gives you the winning hand. There are a total of 44 unknown cards (52 cards in the deck, minus 2 in your hand, minus 2 in your opponents hand, minus 4 on the board), and 18 cards will win the pot for you (3 A’s, 3 K’s, 4 T’s, and 8 remaining spades, note that a ninth Spade has already been counted). This means you will win 18 out of 44 times. Normally we would use 46 unknown cards on the Turn, but in this case we are assuming we know our opponents hand. To make this demonstration simpler, lets assume that if you do not make your hand on the River, you will simply fold, and that if you do hit your hand on the River, your opponent will call your bet half the time.
On the Turn, the pot contains 5 big bets, and your opponent bets into you, thus making it 6 big bets in the pot.
If you call here, you expect to hit your hand 18 out of 44 times, and make 6.5 big bets when you do win (remember we assumed that if you hit your hand on the River that your opponent will call you half the time but will not pay you off the other half of the time). You also expect to lose 1 big bet 26 out of 44 times. The expected value in this case would be 2.07 big bets to make this call, so it is worthwhile to at least play and stay in the hand to see the River card.
Expected Value of Calling = (18/44 x 6.5 big bets) + (26/44 x -1 big bet) = 2.07 big bets
Instead of calling, you could consider raising. Suppose if you raise, there is a 20% chance that your opponent folds right there on the spot, with the Q on the Turn, that is not altogether unlikely. If he calls you on the Turn, you realize he is definitely going to call again on the River if you do not hit your hand (so you cannot bluff on the River), but he will not call if you do hit your hand since the combination of your raise on the Turn and the scary board will now be too much for him.
Now is it better to raise or just call?
Expected Value of Semi-Bluff Raising = (20% x 6 big bets) + (80% x 18/44 x 7 big bets) + (80% x 26/44 x -2 big bets) =2.55 big bets
The EV of the semi-bluff raising play is greater than the EV of calling with these numbers that we used, which means we should raise instead of just call. But what if you had estimated his folding percentage incorrectly? What if instead of having a 20% chance that he folds on the Turn, this guy will actually never fold. Well now you have cost yourself money with a raise in this spot, because you are more likely to lose than win and you have put more money in the pot.
Expected Value of Semi-Bluff Raising if your opponent will never fold on the Turn = (0% x 6 big bets) + (100% x 18/44 x 7 big bets) + (100% x 26/44 x -2 big bets) = +1.68 big bets
With that adjustment, it is clear that a semi-bluff raise against this opponent is not a good idea, as it lowers your expectancy from 2.07 from calling down to 1.68. This is the main reason why the semi-bluff can sometimes be a useless concept in the lower limit games. Since the players in the low limit games are much more likely to call than players in the middle or higher limit games, players who use the semi-bluff raise too often in the low limit games will find that they are costing themselves money by making this play.
The math shows the breakeven point of the semi-bluff is for your opponent to fold 9% of the time. At that rate, your expected value of the semi-bluff raise would be 2.07, which was the same as just calling.
EV against a player who folds 9% of the time: (9% x 6) + (91% x 18/44 x 7) + (91% x 26/44 x -2) = 2.07
As you can see by this demonstration, whether a semi-bluff raise is correct or not depends on the frequency that your opponent will fold a made hand. This is a nice example of how combining the mathematical side of the brain with the social side of the brain can result in a correct analysis. If we just used the math side, we are still at a loss as to whether or not a raise is correct since we do not have an accurate assessment of his folding percentages. If we just used the social side, we are at a loss as to whether or not a raise is correct since we do not have an accurate assessment of the value of a possible fold compared to the negative value of a call by the opponent and losing more money when we lose. It is only when we combine both sides of the brain that we can make it all work.
Unless you are very good with math, or an idiot savant like the character that Dustin Hoffman played in Rain Man, you will not be able to do the math in your head. Even if you understand the concept, it is completely irrational to think anyone can do these calculations in the heat of the battle. But it is still useful to play with the spreadsheet and the math so you can have some idea of certain situations when you are at the table. In this case, you will notice that it takes the opponent’s folding rate to be only 9% of the time for a semi-bluff to be a breakeven play when you have a 18 out of 44 chance of winning and an EV of 2.07 big bets when calling. Anything higher than a 9% folding rate makes the semi-bluff a positive expectancy play. Since most players will fold more than 9% of the time in a situation like this, you can keep in mind the strategy of the semi-bluff Turn raise when you have so many outs, and the opponent may only have second pair.
Raising on the Turn for a free showdown
Another way to semi-bluff is when you have a decent hand on the Turn and raise for a “free” showdown. Actually, the showdown is not free at all since you are committing the two bets on the Turn, but in the spirit of the free card raise on the Flop that really saves a half a bet, lets call this a free showdown raise.
Here are the issues to consider regarding a free showdown raise.
- Your hand has a chance to win a showdown on the River
- If you are behind, you have some possible outs
- There is a chance that your opponent will fold
- The chance that your opponent will re-raise you on the Turn is low
Lets take a look at each issue closely:
1. Your hand has a chance to win a showdown on the River
The reason this factor is important is because you do not want to be putting in any extra bets if you are an underdog and your opponent is likely to call. If you had called the Turn and would not have called the River if your opponent had bet on the River, then you should not consider raising here unless the other factors are very extreme towards raising. You want to have a hand that you would have been willing to call a Turn bet and a River bet anyway. Thus if you do lose this hand, you do not lose any more. In the previous section, I described a semi-bluff raise on the Turn, but that example is a bit different in that your hand has almost no chance of winning a showdown if it is unimproved on the River.
2. If you are behind, you have some possible outs
Having a chance that you are ahead is important, but sometimes you are wrong and you are actually behind. In those cases, you want to have as many outs as possible so that if you are behind you still have a chance of catching up and giving your opponent a bad beat. For example, if you have KQ and the board on the Turn is K983, you may have the best hand, but you are not so sure. Your opponent could have KJ or KT and you are raising for value, or your opponent could have AA, AK or K9 and be ahead, in which case you have 3 outs to catch up. With KQ you would have been willing to call the Turn and River anyway, so you do not mind committing those bets on the Turn. If your opponent calls, you may decide to exercise the option of betting the River only if a Q or K comes.
3. There is a chance that your opponent will fold
Whether or not your opponent has a better hand, if he folds to your raise on the Turn, it is normally a good thing. If he is ahead, you win a hand that you were an underdog to win. If he is behind, you win a hand right there on the Turn and do not give him a chance to give you a bad beat on the River. The only time when it would be bad for your opponent to fold if you raised is if he was drawing dead or drawing relatively thin. For example, maybe he only has two outs, in which case you are hoping he calls. But notice that even in a case like that you would prefer to raise because you would not want to give him a free look at the River if you did not think he was planning on betting or calling the River unless he caught. Typically, the higher the chances of your opponent folding when he has outs, the better a Turn raise will be.
4. The chance that your opponent will re-raise you on the Turn is low
If your opponent re-raises you, then he has completely foiled your strategy if he is ahead. If you still plan to call the River, now you have cost yourself two full bets with the free showdown raise strategy. It would be best to put yourself in the position where you know a re-raise on the Turn is a sign that he has a great hand and is very unlikely to be a bluff. This way you could safely fold a marginal hand. For example, you have AT and on the Turn, the board is AKJT of four different suits, any Q would make a straight. You decide to raise for a free showdown, but your opponent, normally a passive player re-raises. If the pot odds warrant it, you may still want to call this raise and see if the River brings you a full house. If the pot odds are not there, then you can safely fold without fearing you folded to a bluff.
An Expected Value analysis on whether or not to raise on the Turn for a free showdown could be used, but the problem is that there are too many variables to show with one example and often when this play is made, the raiser does not even know if he is ahead or behind.
When the opponent’s semi-bluff or free card draw has hit
There are times when you think the other player is bluffing or semi-bluffing and you do not mind letting him bet as you are likely ahead. However, there are situations when you have to rearrange your thoughts based on cards that hit the board. This can happen when a dangerous card comes and if your opponent was betting or raising with a semi-bluff, he would have gotten there. If he was not semi-bluffing to begin with, he may already have been ahead. In either case, you are much more likely to be behind now and should seriously consider giving up on the hand.
Here’s an example:
You are in late position with KTs. It is folded to you and you raise. The small blind and the big blind call. There are three players and 3 big bets in the pot.
Flop: JT3 rainbow
Both blinds check to you and you bet. The small blind folds and the big blind check-raises. You know the big blind is a good aggressive player. You also know that the big blind knows that you are a good player that have the ability to lay down a hand like A5. There are a myriad of hands that the big blind could be raising with, they include: any J, any T, JT, Q9, KQ, 98, A3, 33. Many of these hands you can beat, and you do not mind calling his raise and you do. There are now two players and 5 big bets in the pot.
The Turn is a 5
The big blind bets and you call. The 5 should not change anything except the unlikely case that the big blind has T5, 53 or 55, which all seem unlikely compared to the other possible hands. Your call should make it clear that you have a legitimate hand, either made or drawing. There are still two players and 7 big bets in the pot.
The River is a Q
If your opponent was on a straight draw, he has either hit a pair of Queens on the River or caught his straight draw. With straight draws of Q9 and KQ, he now has the top pair. With 98, K9, he has now caught his straight. This Q is a very dangerous card for you. Since the opponent is a good player, you should know that he knows the Q is a dangerous card for him too. If all he had was a J or a T, he would be afraid that the Q filled your straight or made you a higher pair. If your opponent still bets on the River, you have to readjust your previous thoughts that he may have been semi-bluffing and has now likely hit a higher pair than yours or filled a straight, or had you beat to begin with. Even with 8-1 odds, your chances look very dim based on the way this hand has developed. The only hand you can beat now are an unlikely worse Ten still betting into you (you must realize he should be afraid of the Q even more than you if he just had a T) or a stone cold bluff on the River with a hand like A3. You should fold.
Another situation that comes up often, especially in shorthanded games where players will semi-bluff often, is when a Turn or River card comes that is right in the middle of a possible straight draw. For example, with a Flop of J73, a T, 9 or 8 are all very dangerous cards especially if you have a pair of 7s or lower. This is because any straight draw has either made their straight or now has a higher pair than you. You may be comfortable calling down an opponent that you think may be semi-bluffing when you have middle pair, but when one of these danger cards come, it may be time to bail on the hand.
Bluffing
A bluff is a bet or raise that if called has very little chance of winning. Bluffing is an important part of Limit Hold’em but it is not nearly as important as most people think. In fact, people who do not play poker very much often think bluffing is the most important concept to the game. This wouldbe a mis-characterization of the game. People probably overestimate the importance of bluffing in poker because bluffing as a strategy is fairly unique to the game of poker. Bluffing cannot be used in many other competitive games. The concept of bluffing does not exist in craps, billiards or chess. Often people will refer to poker when they discuss bluffing in other aspects of life. For example, during the 2004 NFL Draft, Chris Mortensen of ESPN described the discussions of the trade between the New York Giants and the San Diego Chargers for Eli Manning as a game of poker in that they were both trying to bluff and not show their hand.
To use the bluff successfully, one needs to know the right time to use it. In many low limit games, bluffing is often pointless since most players will call with weak hands. In the middle and high limit games, where players are more willing to fold hands, bluffing becomes an effective tool and can be used strategically at times. The value of bluffing will change depending on the players and the situation. For some opponents, they will not care about how you play because they have already predetermined whether they will call or fold based on their own holdings, they have not made the second step of trying to analyze what you have. Against those opponents, your decision to bluff or not should be based solely on what you think they have. Against other opponents who play better and who will try to deduce your cards given the play of the hand up to that point, it becomes a little more difficult. Not only do you need a good handle on the cards that they hold, but you also need to have a good idea of what they think you have.
A bluff does not need to be successful a majority of the time for it to be a worthwhile venture. It only needs to be successful more often than the pot odds provide for it to be a winning strategy. If the pot holds ten big bets, risking one big bet to try to win the pot is worthwhile even if the chance of a bluff being successful is only 15%. In that case, the expected value of a bluff would be
Expected Value of bluffing = (15% x 10 big bets) + (85% x -1 big bet) = +.65 big bets
If your opponent calls 85% of the time, you will be showing down a bluff bet and look foolish during those times. It is the 15% of the time when he folds a better hand than yours that you will take the money and no one else will know what you just did. An activity like bluffing can be quantified, even if much of the time, it is a skill of “feel” or intuition.