All About Semi-Bluffing
Although the term semi-bluff or semi-bluffing is now used universally in the poker world, it was first used by David Sklansky. The idea is that you bet or a raise with the hopes that your opponent will fold, but if they do not, you still have a chance to win the hand with other cards to come. This allows you two ways to win, via a fold by your opponent or getting lucky on a future round. If there is no chance that the opponent will fold, then it is just a bluff, not a semi-bluff.
Semi-Bluff Raising on the Turn
There are times when you should raise even if you do not have the best cards at the moment. You are hoping that your opponent will fold a better hand, but even if he calls, you will still have a chance of improving to beat him.
Example:
| You hold: |   |
| On the Turn, the board is: |     |
| Lets assume you know your opponent has: |   |
So he is currently ahead of you with a pair, but you have many outs. Any A, K, T or spade gives you the winning hand. There are a total of 44 unknown cards (52 cards in the deck, minus 2 in your hand, minus 2 in your opponents hand, minus 4 on the board), and 18 cards will win the pot for you (3 A’s, 3 K’s, 4 T’s, and 8 remaining spades, note that a ninth Spade has already been counted). This means you will win 18 out of 44 times. Normally we would use 46 unknown cards on the Turn, but in this case we are assuming we know our opponents hand. To make this demonstration simpler, lets assume that if you do not make your hand on the River, you will simply fold, and that if you do hit your hand on the River, your opponent will call your bet half the time.
On the Turn, the pot contains 5 big bets, and your opponent bets into you, thus making it 6 big bets in the pot.
If you call here, you expect to hit your hand 18 out of 44 times, and make 6.5 big bets when you do win (remember we assumed that if you hit your hand on the River that your opponent will call you half the time but will not pay you off the other half of the time). You also expect to lose 1 big bet 26 out of 44 times. The expected value in this case would be 2.07 big bets to make this call, so it is worthwhile to at least play and stay in the hand to see the River card.
Expected Value of Calling = (18/44 x 6.5 big bets) + (26/44 x -1 big bet) = 2.07 big bets
Instead of calling, you could consider raising. Suppose if you raise, there is a 20% chance that your opponent folds right there on the spot, with the Q on the Turn, that is not altogether unlikely. If he calls you on the Turn, you realize he is definitely going to call again on the River if you do not hit your hand (so you cannot bluff on the River), but he will not call if you do hit your hand since the combination of your raise on the Turn and the scary board will now be too much for him.
Now is it better to raise or just call?
Expected Value of Semi-Bluff Raising = (20% x 6 big bets) + (80% x 18/44 x 7 big bets) + (80% x 26/44 x -2 big bets) =2.55 big bets
The EV of the semi-bluff raising play is greater than the EV of calling with these numbers that we used, which means we should raise instead of just call. But what if you had estimated his folding percentage incorrectly? What if instead of having a 20% chance that he folds on the Turn, this guy will actually never fold. Well now you have cost yourself money with a raise in this spot, because you are more likely to lose than win and you have put more money in the pot.
Expected Value of Semi-Bluff Raising if your opponent will never fold on the Turn = (0% x 6 big bets) + (100% x 18/44 x 7 big bets) + (100% x 26/44 x -2 big bets) = +1.68 big bets
With that adjustment, it is clear that a semi-bluff raise against this opponent is not a good idea, as it lowers your expectancy from 2.07 from calling down to 1.68. This is the main reason why the semi-bluff can sometimes be a useless concept in the lower limit games. Since the players in the low limit games are much more likely to call than players in the middle or higher limit games, players who use the semi-bluff raise too often in the low limit games will find that they are costing themselves money by making this play.
The math shows the breakeven point of the semi-bluff is for your opponent to fold 9% of the time. At that rate, your expected value of the semi-bluff raise would be 2.07, which was the same as just calling.
EV against a player who folds 9% of the time: (9% x 6) + (91% x 18/44 x 7) + (91% x 26/44 x -2) = 2.07
As you can see by this demonstration, whether a semi-bluff raise is correct or not depends on the frequency that your opponent will fold a made hand. This is a nice example of how combining the mathematical side of the brain with the social side of the brain can result in a correct analysis. If we just used the math side, we are still at a loss as to whether or not a raise is correct since we do not have an accurate assessment of his folding percentages. If we just used the social side, we are at a loss as to whether or not a raise is correct since we do not have an accurate assessment of the value of a possible fold compared to the negative value of a call by the opponent and losing more money when we lose. It is only when we combine both sides of the brain that we can make it all work.
Unless you are very good with math, or an idiot savant like the character that Dustin Hoffman played in Rain Man, you will not be able to do the math in your head. Even if you understand the concept, it is completely irrational to think anyone can do these calculations in the heat of the battle. But it is still useful to play with the spreadsheet and the math so you can have some idea of certain situations when you are at the table. In this case, you will notice that it takes the opponent’s folding rate to be only 9% of the time for a semi-bluff to be a breakeven play when you have a 18 out of 44 chance of winning and an EV of 2.07 big bets when calling. Anything higher than a 9% folding rate makes the semi-bluff a positive expectancy play. Since most players will fold more than 9% of the time in a situation like this, you can keep in mind the strategy of the semi-bluff Turn raise when you have so many outs, and the opponent may only have second pair.
Raising on the Turn for a free showdown
Another way to semi-bluff is when you have a decent hand on the Turn and raise for a “free” showdown. Actually, the showdown is not free at all since you are committing the two bets on the Turn, but in the spirit of the free card raise on the Flop that really saves a half a bet, lets call this a free showdown raise.
Here are the issues to consider regarding a free showdown raise.
- Your hand has a chance to win a showdown on the River
- If you are behind, you have some possible outs
- There is a chance that your opponent will fold
- The chance that your opponent will re-raise you on the Turn is low
Lets take a look at each issue closely:
1. Your hand has a chance to win a showdown on the River
The reason this factor is important is because you do not want to be putting in any extra bets if you are an underdog and your opponent is likely to call. If you had called the Turn and would not have called the River if your opponent had bet on the River, then you should not consider raising here unless the other factors are very extreme towards raising. You want to have a hand that you would have been willing to call a Turn bet and a River bet anyway. Thus if you do lose this hand, you do not lose any more. In the previous section, I described a semi-bluff raise on the Turn, but that example is a bit different in that your hand has almost no chance of winning a showdown if it is unimproved on the River.
2. If you are behind, you have some possible outs
Having a chance that you are ahead is important, but sometimes you are wrong and you are actually behind. In those cases, you want to have as many outs as possible so that if you are behind you still have a chance of catching up and giving your opponent a bad beat. For example, if you have KQ and the board on the Turn is K983, you may have the best hand, but you are not so sure. Your opponent could have KJ or KT and you are raising for value, or your opponent could have AA, AK or K9 and be ahead, in which case you have 3 outs to catch up. With KQ you would have been willing to call the Turn and River anyway, so you do not mind committing those bets on the Turn. If your opponent calls, you may decide to exercise the option of betting the River only if a Q or K comes.
3. There is a chance that your opponent will fold
Whether or not your opponent has a better hand, if he folds to your raise on the Turn, it is normally a good thing. If he is ahead, you win a hand that you were an underdog to win. If he is behind, you win a hand right there on the Turn and do not give him a chance to give you a bad beat on the River. The only time when it would be bad for your opponent to fold if you raised is if he was drawing dead or drawing relatively thin. For example, maybe he only has two outs, in which case you are hoping he calls. But notice that even in a case like that you would prefer to raise because you would not want to give him a free look at the River if you did not think he was planning on betting or calling the River unless he caught. Typically, the higher the chances of your opponent folding when he has outs, the better a Turn raise will be.
4. The chance that your opponent will re-raise you on the Turn is low
If your opponent re-raises you, then he has completely foiled your strategy if he is ahead. If you still plan to call the River, now you have cost yourself two full bets with the free showdown raise strategy. It would be best to put yourself in the position where you know a re-raise on the Turn is a sign that he has a great hand and is very unlikely to be a bluff. This way you could safely fold a marginal hand. For example, you have AT and on the Turn, the board is AKJT of four different suits, any Q would make a straight. You decide to raise for a free showdown, but your opponent, normally a passive player re-raises. If the pot odds warrant it, you may still want to call this raise and see if the River brings you a full house. If the pot odds are not there, then you can safely fold without fearing you folded to a bluff.
An Expected Value analysis on whether or not to raise on the Turn for a free showdown could be used, but the problem is that there are too many variables to show with one example and often when this play is made, the raiser does not even know if he is ahead or behind.
When the opponent’s semi-bluff or free card draw has hit
There are times when you think the other player is bluffing or semi-bluffing and you do not mind letting him bet as you are likely ahead. However, there are situations when you have to rearrange your thoughts based on cards that hit the board. This can happen when a dangerous card comes and if your opponent was betting or raising with a semi-bluff, he would have gotten there. If he was not semi-bluffing to begin with, he may already have been ahead. In either case, you are much more likely to be behind now and should seriously consider giving up on the hand.
Here’s an example:
You are in late position with KTs. It is folded to you and you raise. The small blind and the big blind call. There are three players and 3 big bets in the pot.
Flop: JT3 rainbow
Both blinds check to you and you bet. The small blind folds and the big blind check-raises. You know the big blind is a good aggressive player. You also know that the big blind knows that you are a good player that have the ability to lay down a hand like A5. There are a myriad of hands that the big blind could be raising with, they include: any J, any T, JT, Q9, KQ, 98, A3, 33. Many of these hands you can beat, and you do not mind calling his raise and you do. There are now two players and 5 big bets in the pot.
The Turn is a 5
The big blind bets and you call. The 5 should not change anything except the unlikely case that the big blind has T5, 53 or 55, which all seem unlikely compared to the other possible hands. Your call should make it clear that you have a legitimate hand, either made or drawing. There are still two players and 7 big bets in the pot.
The River is a Q
If your opponent was on a straight draw, he has either hit a pair of Queens on the River or caught his straight draw. With straight draws of Q9 and KQ, he now has the top pair. With 98, K9, he has now caught his straight. This Q is a very dangerous card for you. Since the opponent is a good player, you should know that he knows the Q is a dangerous card for him too. If all he had was a J or a T, he would be afraid that the Q filled your straight or made you a higher pair. If your opponent still bets on the River, you have to readjust your previous thoughts that he may have been semi-bluffing and has now likely hit a higher pair than yours or filled a straight, or had you beat to begin with. Even with 8-1 odds, your chances look very dim based on the way this hand has developed. The only hand you can beat now are an unlikely worse Ten still betting into you (you must realize he should be afraid of the Q even more than you if he just had a T) or a stone cold bluff on the River with a hand like A3. You should fold.
Another situation that comes up often, especially in shorthanded games where players will semi-bluff often, is when a Turn or River card comes that is right in the middle of a possible straight draw. For example, with a Flop of J73, a T, 9 or 8 are all very dangerous cards especially if you have a pair of 7s or lower. This is because any straight draw has either made their straight or now has a higher pair than you. You may be comfortable calling down an opponent that you think may be semi-bluffing when you have middle pair, but when one of these danger cards come, it may be time to bail on the hand.
The Poker Mentality
If you only play poker for FUN, then making the jump to poker for a living may not be for you. Because to be successful, you must be able to play at DULL tables… against BORING players… and sit patiently for hours waiting for the right times to “make moves”.
The best players treat poker like a BUSINESS… not a hobby. It’s a way to make money. Period. Sure… poker pros love the game and respect it, but they aren’t playing for pride. They’re playing to pay the mortgage, car payments, and win more MONEY. Do you ever get TIRED of waiting for good cards? Do you get annoyed by quiet… slowmoving
tables?
If you’re going to win money consistently, you’ve got to be able to play ten hours at a time… at a BREAK EVEN rate… as you patiently wait for the BIG OPPORTUNITITES to rake in large pots. Of course, besides being patient and ignoring that “itch” for excitement, you must also be able to handle LONG HOURS and LATE NIGHTS every day. When you hear “poker professional”, what do you think of? Lots of people think of the guys who win the World Series of Poker or World Poker Tour and take in multi-million dollar purses.
But only a SMALL FRACTION of pros win those tournaments. Hell… not all pros even ENTER most tournaments, depending on their preferred game. And most importantly, the WIN RATE of even the best pros is very small. Just because you see someone on TV a lot one season doesn’t mean he always makes the final table for every tournament he’s in. What you DON’T see is all the frustrating losses he’s had to GET to this point. For every final table, there’s five… ten… twenty… maybe FIFTY… “bad” tournaments.
Most of the money that you’ll MAKE as a pro doesn’t come from that BIG tournament win. Instead, it comes from “grinding it out” at the casinos and card rooms. Try playing poker for a 12-hour session… FIVE DAYS IN A ROW. If you find yourself getting too tired, you’re not ready for the pro life. There are lots of players who have a DEEP PASSION and LOVE for poker… but they don’t have the PERSONALITY needed to play full-time. That’s why many of the greatest players just play SEMI-professionally… which may be a viable option for you too.
Poker Hand Ranking
1. Royal Flush
This is the highest poker hand. It consists of ace, king, queen, jack, ten, all in the same suit. As all suits are equal, all royal flushes are equal.
2. Straight Flush
Five cards of the same suit in sequence - such as ♣J-♣10-♣9-♣8-♣7. Between two straight flushes, the one containing the higher top card is higher. An ace can be counted as low, so ♦5-♥4-♦3-♦2-♦A is a straight flush, but its top card is the five, not the ace, so it is the lowest type of straight flush. The cards cannot “turn the corner”: ♦4-♦3-♦2-♦A-♦K is not valid.
3. Four of a kind
Four cards of the same rank - such as four queens. The fifth card can be anything. This combination is sometimes known as “quads”, and in some parts of Europe it is called a “poker”, though this term for it is unknown in English. Between two fours of a kind, the one with the higher set of four cards is higher - so 3-3-3-3-A is beaten by 4-4-4-4-2. It can’t happen in standard poker, but if in some other game you need to compare two fours of a kind where the sets of four cards are of the same rank, then the one with the higher fifth card is better.
4. Full House
This consists of three cards of one rank and two cards of another rank - for example three sevens and two tens (colloquially known as “sevens full” or more specifically “sevens on tens”). When comparing full houses, the rank of the three cards determines which is higher. For example 9-9-9-4-4 beats 8-8-8-A-A. If the threes of a kind were equal, the rank of the pairs would decide.
5. Flush
Five cards of the same suit. When comparing two flushes, the highest card determines which is higher. If the highest cards are equal then the second highest card is compared; if those are equal too, then the third highest card, and so on. For example ♠K-♠J-♠9-♠3-♠2 beats ♦K-♦J-♦7-♦6-♦5 because the nine beats the seven.
6. Straight
Five cards of mixed suits in sequence - for example ♠Q-♦J-♦10-♠9-♣8. When comparing two sequences, the one with the higher ranking top card is better. Ace can count high or low in a straight, but not both at once, so A-K-Q-J-10 and 5-4-3-2-A are valid straights, but 2-A-K-Q-J is not. 5-4-3-2-A is the lowest kind of straight, the top card being the five.
7. Three of a Kind
Three cards of the same rank plus two other cards. This combination is also known as Triplets or Trips. When comparing two threes of a kind the hand in which the three equal cards are of higher rank is better. So for example 5-5-5-3-2 beats 4-4-4-K-Q. If you have to compare two threes of a kind where the sets of three are of equal rank, then the higher of the two remaining cards in each hand are compared, and if those are equal, the lower odd card is compared.
8. Two Pairs
A pair is two cards of equal rank. In a hand with two pairs, the two pairs are of different ranks (otherwise you would have four of a kind), and there is an odd card to make the hand up to five cards. When comparing hands with two pairs, the hand with the highest pair wins, irrespective of the rank of the other cards - so J-J-2-2-4 beats 10-10-9-9-8 because the jacks beat the tens. If the higher pairs are equal, the lower pairs are compared, so that for example 8-8-6-6-3 beats 8-8-5-5-K. Finally, if both pairs are the same, the odd cards are compared, so Q-Q-5-5-8 beats Q-Q-5-5-4.
9. Pair
A hand with two cards of equal rank and three other cards which do not match these or each other. When comparing two such hands, the hand with the higher pair is better - so for example 6-6-4-3-2 beats 5-5-A-K-Q. If the pairs are equal, compare the highest ranking odd cards from each hand; if these are equal compare the second highest odd card, and if these are equal too compare the lowest odd cards. So J-J-A-9-3 beats J-J-A-8-7 because the 9 beats the 8.
10. High Card
Five cards which do not form any of the combinations listed above. When comparing two such hands, the one with the better highest card wins. If the highest cards are equal the second cards are compared; if they are equal too the third cards are compared, and so on. So A-J-9-5-3 beats A-10-9-6-4 because the jack beats the ten.
Bluffing
A bluff is a bet or raise that if called has very little chance of winning. Bluffing is an important part of Limit Hold’em but it is not nearly as important as most people think. In fact, people who do not play poker very much often think bluffing is the most important concept to the game. This wouldbe a mis-characterization of the game. People probably overestimate the importance of bluffing in poker because bluffing as a strategy is fairly unique to the game of poker. Bluffing cannot be used in many other competitive games. The concept of bluffing does not exist in craps, billiards or chess. Often people will refer to poker when they discuss bluffing in other aspects of life. For example, during the 2004 NFL Draft, Chris Mortensen of ESPN described the discussions of the trade between the New York Giants and the San Diego Chargers for Eli Manning as a game of poker in that they were both trying to bluff and not show their hand.
To use the bluff successfully, one needs to know the right time to use it. In many low limit games, bluffing is often pointless since most players will call with weak hands. In the middle and high limit games, where players are more willing to fold hands, bluffing becomes an effective tool and can be used strategically at times. The value of bluffing will change depending on the players and the situation. For some opponents, they will not care about how you play because they have already predetermined whether they will call or fold based on their own holdings, they have not made the second step of trying to analyze what you have. Against those opponents, your decision to bluff or not should be based solely on what you think they have. Against other opponents who play better and who will try to deduce your cards given the play of the hand up to that point, it becomes a little more difficult. Not only do you need a good handle on the cards that they hold, but you also need to have a good idea of what they think you have.
A bluff does not need to be successful a majority of the time for it to be a worthwhile venture. It only needs to be successful more often than the pot odds provide for it to be a winning strategy. If the pot holds ten big bets, risking one big bet to try to win the pot is worthwhile even if the chance of a bluff being successful is only 15%. In that case, the expected value of a bluff would be
Expected Value of bluffing = (15% x 10 big bets) + (85% x -1 big bet) = +.65 big bets
If your opponent calls 85% of the time, you will be showing down a bluff bet and look foolish during those times. It is the 15% of the time when he folds a better hand than yours that you will take the money and no one else will know what you just did. An activity like bluffing can be quantified, even if much of the time, it is a skill of “feel” or intuition.
Poker Personalities
Playing poker for a living requires skill… patience… and perhaps most importantly, NERVES OF STEEL! When you work at a “real job”, you get a regular paycheck. Every two weeks or so, a check shows up on your doorstep… like clockwork. Hell, you may even get a BONUS from time to time.
BUT NEVER will your boss call you in his office and say: “You know, your work lately hasn’t been that great… so we’re going to KEEP your paycheck this week, AND we’re going to take $3,000.00 from your bank account…sorry.”
As a professional poker player, you can literally work your ASS OFF all day… only to leave thousands of dollars POORER! There’s no other job like this in the world. It takes an incredibly strong stomach to deal with the intense up’s and down’s… and the different “swings” of luck you’ll encounter. It’s difficult to be able to PREDICT if you’ve got what it takes to handle the emotions of being a pro. The only real way to “know” is to experience it first hand…
To be successful, you’ve got to have an ungodly amount of POISE. Pretty much every successful career player has poise… (despite what it looks like on TV). This means the players are in CONTROL of themselves at almost all times. They don’t get impatient and make silly moves at the table… if they don’t like the way a certain table looks, they WAIT for a new opening. They are LOGICAL about each decision and REMOVE EMOTION from their game.
Let me ask you this simple question:
When is the last time you went on “tilt”?
If you still go on TILT (or within the last 10-15 playing sessions), then you’re NOT ready for a career as a poker pro. Because tilt at the poker table is just a “microcosm” of the “tilt” you’ll feel in LIFE as a poker pro. If three consecutive bad beats sets you off… then just wait for THREE MONTHS of cold cards!
Poker Skill Levels
Just about every poker player OVER-ESTIMATES his own poker ability. If you asked every player in the world if they were “good” or “bad”, I’d guess about 90% would claim to be GOOD. This is IRONIC… of course… because about 90% of all poker players will end up LOSING money with the game.
As an example, just think about how many players LOVE to tell their “bad beats” stories. Ever wonder why that is? I think a big part of it is that they need an EXCUSE… so that they DON’T have to say, “Wow, I was totally outplayed!” Ego plays a huge role in poker… from amateurs to pros. But when you’re considering making the jump to playing poker for a LIVING, the stakes are too high to let your ego get in the way. You need to separate FACTS from VANITY.
Here are three initial steps to take to “get the facts” about your own poker playing ability:
1. Ask Around
Ask those people you PLAY WITH what THEY think of your poker skills. Don’t just ask your buddies either… talk to strangers at the casinos, chat with other online players, and have a friendly talk with your table “nemesis” if you have one. The point is to seek out opinions from OTHER parties about your skill level. Get a consensus. If nine out of ten people say, “You suck”… you probably do.
2. Track, Track, Track
Are you truly a WINNING player? How much money have you won this month? This year? What’s your “hourly rate”? What percentage of games do you win? Before assuming you have what it takes to be a poker pro, you must be able to answer these questions effectively and a have a clear history of tracking your play. Cold hard numbers don’t lie. After you log a solid 250 hours of poker, you’ll be able to get the REAL picture of your poker playing ability. You can’t really fool yourself by saying, “Oh, I caught bad cards” or “I had the WORST luck” because after 250 hours, your cold cards are equaled out by the hot streaks. If you are a loser after 250 hours, there is a good chance that you are going to be a loser at 2,500 hours.
3. Play A Variety Of Players
Sure, you might be able to DOMINATE the card game at the local pub with your DRUNK friends… but that doesn’t mean you’ll be able to compete with strong players at the higher limits… the kind of games you’ll be playing as a PRO. Pros play a majority of games against players they know they can beat. But at higher stakes than what you’re probably used to. So before thinking about poker full-time, be sure to get a WELL-ROUNDED and complete picture of how you fare against the competition out there. Try out different games, try out different stakes online, go to different casinos, and so on. See if your previous success was your SKILLS or just BAD OPPONENTS.