Bluffing
Categories: Poker, Strategy, Tips
A bluff is a bet or raise that if called has very little chance of winning. Bluffing is an important part of Limit Hold’em but it is not nearly as important as most people think. In fact, people who do not play poker very much often think bluffing is the most important concept to the game. This wouldbe a mis-characterization of the game. People probably overestimate the importance of bluffing in poker because bluffing as a strategy is fairly unique to the game of poker. Bluffing cannot be used in many other competitive games. The concept of bluffing does not exist in craps, billiards or chess. Often people will refer to poker when they discuss bluffing in other aspects of life. For example, during the 2004 NFL Draft, Chris Mortensen of ESPN described the discussions of the trade between the New York Giants and the San Diego Chargers for Eli Manning as a game of poker in that they were both trying to bluff and not show their hand.
To use the bluff successfully, one needs to know the right time to use it. In many low limit games, bluffing is often pointless since most players will call with weak hands. In the middle and high limit games, where players are more willing to fold hands, bluffing becomes an effective tool and can be used strategically at times. The value of bluffing will change depending on the players and the situation. For some opponents, they will not care about how you play because they have already predetermined whether they will call or fold based on their own holdings, they have not made the second step of trying to analyze what you have. Against those opponents, your decision to bluff or not should be based solely on what you think they have. Against other opponents who play better and who will try to deduce your cards given the play of the hand up to that point, it becomes a little more difficult. Not only do you need a good handle on the cards that they hold, but you also need to have a good idea of what they think you have.
A bluff does not need to be successful a majority of the time for it to be a worthwhile venture. It only needs to be successful more often than the pot odds provide for it to be a winning strategy. If the pot holds ten big bets, risking one big bet to try to win the pot is worthwhile even if the chance of a bluff being successful is only 15%. In that case, the expected value of a bluff would be
Expected Value of bluffing = (15% x 10 big bets) + (85% x -1 big bet) = +.65 big bets
If your opponent calls 85% of the time, you will be showing down a bluff bet and look foolish during those times. It is the 15% of the time when he folds a better hand than yours that you will take the money and no one else will know what you just did. An activity like bluffing can be quantified, even if much of the time, it is a skill of “feel” or intuition.
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